UK science must deliver on its promise of economic growth

This piece was first published on the WonkHE blog on 18 May 2026. It’s an attempt to condense the arguments I’ve been making in my three longer blogpostsUK Science in a post-liberal world, UK science policy in transition, and Winds of change for UK science policy.

For more than a decade, there’s been a remarkable cross-party political consensus in the UK in support of funding scientific research.  Despite the wider pressures on public finances, public spending on science has been increasing in real terms, and further increases are planned.  But that consensus is now breaking down – and, in my view, the wider UK research community has not yet woken up to the threat.  We can’t take continuing government and public support for science for granted, and the science funding system needs to adapt and demonstrate that it is delivering for the nation, to make sure that support continues.

The recent English local elections made clear that the old political duopoly is breaking up – and what’s driving many supporters of both Greens and Reform is a sense that the old system is broken.  “Burn it all down” is an emerging political theme. There are obvious new threats that the country needs to respond to, notably increasing geopolitical insecurity.  The Conservative Party’s plan to cut UK Research and Innovation’s funding by 20%, moving the money into direct defence R&D, is a signal that, whoever forms the next government, times are changing.

But perhaps the biggest issue the research community must face is this: the justification for increases in the government’s research budget has been that more R&D will lead to economic growth – but that growth has not materialised.  GDP per person is about 29% lower than it would have been if the pre-2008 trend had continued, and this stagnation manifests itself directly in people’s wages and living standards, which on average have barely increased over the last twenty years, and in governments’ difficulties in funding public services.

We know that research and innovation does produce economic growth, but we need to be much more sophisticated in our understanding of the different ways that happens.  Not all research is the same, and different sectors of the economy need to be supported by R&D in different ways. We have to get the balance right between different kinds of research, and the different outcomes we can expect from each kind, to get the return that the nation expects from science.  

Here are three examples of the different ways science has delivered for us over the last ten years or so.   

In 2015, a multinational collaboration, with a UK contribution funded by STFC, discovered gravitational waves. This was a breakthrough in understanding the fundamental structure of space and time, at last confirming a century old prediction of Einstein. It has given us a new tool for studying the universe – the first signal came from two black holes colliding. The gravitational wave signal that the scientists detected was miniscule; this was a technological breakthrough as well as a scientific one, leading to new technologies in optics and photonics. 

At the beginning of 2021, as everyone will remember, the anxiety of going into a third wave of covid was mixed with hope, as the vaccine programme got started. The development of effective covid vaccines in such short order was a remarkable achievement, that was enabled by years of research – research that saved about 20 million lives worldwide. In the UK, Medical Research Council support over the years for the Oxford group led to the AstraZeneca vaccine.

But there’s less well known story from the pandemic; the mRNA vaccines developed by Pfizer and Moderna depended on highly specialised lipid molecules to encapsulate and deliver the delicate mRNA molecule.  Manufacturing of these chemicals had to be rapidly scaled up from grams to tonnes – and the company that did this was the Yorkshire based company Croda, with much of the manufacturing done in their plant in the Staffordshire town of Leek, expanded with UK government support in 2021.  

These three stories illustrate three dimensions of research and development. There’s basic science, focused on uncovering deep truths about our world and the universe it sits in – but from which unpredictable benefits may emerge in the future. 

There’s the research we need to do to meet society’s needs, expressed through government priorities. We need to be prepared for pandemics, we need to do the research that will support the high tech businesses we need to generate growth and good jobs – and, sadly, increasingly we’ll need the research needed to keep us safe in a dangerous world.  

But none of this will deliver unless we have innovative businesses that can take new products and better processes and scale them up, generating jobs and value in communities throughout the UK.  This is where the UK has been weak; out of the world’s top 100 R&D performing companies, only two are British – the pharmaceutical companies AstraZeneca and GSK.

The government primarily funds science through UK Research and Innovation, the umbrella organisation for research councils like STFC and MRC, as well as the business focused agency InnovateUK, and there are changes happening in the way funding is organised in UKRI.  But what’s driving those changes isn’t an attempt to downgrade the importance of fundamental research.  It’s a recognition of the importance of all three dimensions of R&D, and the need to keep them in the right balance. And it’s a move to make that balance very clear, both to the government and to the country more widely.  In return UKRI needs consistency and clarity from government about what the long-term priorities of the nation should be.

We in the scientific community need to step back and reflect on the wider circumstances the country finds itself in. We have deep seated economic problems – the lack of productivity growth since 2008 has led directly to wage stagnation and problems funding public services.  Our nation is profoundly economically divided, with much of the UK outside the Greater Southeast looking more like Southern Italy and Portugal than Northern Europe.  And now we are reminded of the fragility of our energy supplies, and the need to defend ourselves and our way of life.  

Research and development – from all disciplines, including the arts and humanities and social sciences – should have a central role in addressing the crises of this moment.  But our funding system needs to be organised in a way that makes this possible, and that is explicit in the way it balances the three dimensions of R&D – basic research, supporting government priorities, and making sure our innovative companies can grow.  

The changes in UKRI, to align funding to Science Minister Patrick Vallance’s “three buckets”, is a move in this direction. It’s a major upheaval, that’s rightly being implemented with some urgency, and there are understandable anxieties in the community about what’s happening.  But Government – and more importantly, citizens – need to understand what they are getting from public research and development.  

At a time of rapid change, it’s easy, and understandable, to want to focus on what’s happening in one’s own discipline. But the stakes here are much higher, and the research community would do well to reflect on what changes are needed to maintain a wide consensus in support of the whole of our national research enterprise.

We only have to look at the USA – where President Trump is proposing a $5.9 billion cut to the National Institute of Health, and $4.8 billion cut to the National Science Foundation – to see what happens if the consensus in support of science is broken.  To maintain that consensus, UK science must deliver.

How Sheffield became Steel City

For the first time for several decades, there are grounds for optimism about the future of Sheffield’s steel industry (very much reduced in scale though it now is). Sheffield Forgemasters (now UK state owned) is building a major new facility, and Special Melted Products (with an infusion of Taiwanese capital) is also expanding. This isn’t about the standard grades of steel for use in construction – the expansion is to meet demand for specialised forgings from speciality steels and other alloys, driven by applications in defense, aerospace, civil nuclear and energy, and influenced by a new focus on UK national resilience and industrial capacity. This gives me a pretext to republish this piece I wrote nearly ten years ago about the history of the steel industry in Sheffield – and the valuable lessons this history can teach us about innovation.

As someone interested in the history of innovation, I take great pleasure in seeing the many tangible reminders of the industrial revolution that are to be found where I live and work, in North Derbyshire and Sheffield. I get the impression that academics are sometimes a little snooty about local history, seeing it as the domain of amateurs and enthusiasts. If so, this would be a pity, because a deeper understanding of the histories of particular places could be helpful in providing some tests of, and illustrations for, the grand theories that are the currency of academics. I’ve recently read the late David Hey’s excellent “History of Sheffield”, and this prompted these reflections on what we can learn about the history of innovation from the example of this city, which became so famous for its steel industries. What can we learn from the rise (and fall) of steel in Sheffield?

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Andy Burnham, Manchesterism, and Reindustrialisation

As the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, attempts to re-enter national politics, he’s talked a lot about “Manchesterism” as an approach that underlies the relative economic success of Greater Manchester in recent years, and has argued for the re-industrialization of those parts of the country that lost much of their industry in the 1980’s and 90’s.  What is behind these arguments?  I can’t claim any direct knowledge of Burnham’s plans, but I do have some insight into the development of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority’s economic strategy, which may offer some clues.  

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The slow road to digital matter

Ray Kurzweil’s book “The Singularity is Near” is twenty years old, and its thesis has become conventional wisdom in Silicon Valley.  The Singularity is an event horizon – a date at which technological growth becomes so rapid that to look beyond it becomes quite unknowable to pre-Singularity humans, a point at which machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence and goes into a recursive cycle of self-improvement.  Kurzweil’s target date for the Singularity was 2045, and in the opinion of many in Silicon Valley we’re well on schedule.

The evidence for the accuracy for Kurzweil’s prediction is, of course, recent rapid progress in AI.  But that’s not the only technological development that Kurzweil’s prediction depends on. The connection between machine super-intelligence and control over the physical world needs to be established through nanotechnology.

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Winds of change for UK science policy

The Conservative Party plans to cut funding for UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) by 20%, amounting to £6 billion over three years, reallocating the funding to military drone procurement, according to a report in Research Professional. Julia Lopez, Shadow DSIT Minister, says “we need to focus our remarkable British scientific and technological capabilities more explicitly on defence”.

We’re seeing a two-decade old cross-party consensus around science funding now breaking down.  It’s notable that UKRI was a creation of the 2015 Conservative Government, with a funding increase balanced with the explicit goal of bringing the UK’s R&D programme more directly under government control. The R&D spending plans of the current government are essentially those it inherited from the 2020 Conservative Government.  But, as its leader Kemi Badenoch has taken to saying, the Conservative Party is under new management now.

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The place of UK business in the global R&D scoreboard

My last post looked at the growth in UK government support for R&D over the last decade. But if we are interested in restoring economic growth (as we should be, given the ongoing economic stagnation that the UK has been suffering), it’s R&D carried out by businesses that is more immediately relevant in terms of its direct effect on productivity growth, through the development of new, high value goods and services, and through making existing processes more efficient.  This post takes a look at R&D done by UK-owned businesses, taking a snapshot in the year 2024.

First, I’ll pose two similar-looking questions.  First, how much R&D do UK-owned businesses do?  Second, how much R&D is done by businesses in the UK?

The best answer we have to the first question – how much R&D do UK-owned businesses do? – is £32.1 billion.  This comes from the EU R&D scoreboard, which uses publicly available data to list and rank the world’s top 2000 R&D performing companies.  According to the scoreboard, the world total of business spending on R&D from these 2000 companies in 2024 was £1.2 trillion, so the share of this total done by UK companies is about 2.7%.

For the second question – how much R&D is done by businesses in the UK? – we turn to the ONS’s survey of Business Enterprise R&D, the BERD survey.  For 2024, this gives a total business R&D spend of £55.6 billion.

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The UK’s big bet on science and technology

Between 2015 and 2023, UK government direct spending on research and development increased by 22% in real terms, and the current government plans a further 12% increase by 2029.  If one includes the subsidy for private sector R&D represented by the R&D tax credit (and one should) the total real terms increase in government support for R&D is even larger.  From the low point of austerity, in 2011, to 2023, the real terms increase was 65%, a remarkable – and, perhaps, little appreciated – figure in the context of difficult fiscal circumstances faced by those governments.  Underlying this increase is a broad consensus about the importance of R&D for economic growth, and the need for the state to invest in R&D, to correct the market failure that means that the private sector will invest less in R&D than is societally optimal.

Given this economic motivation for investing in R&D, it’s inevitable that people will ask whether the increase in government spending on R&D has resulted in a measurable increase in economic growth.  So far, the answer seems to be that it hasn’t, with the UK’s economic stagnation continuing well into its second decade.  This is an important context for the changes in science policy I discussed in my earlier post – UK science policy in transition.  The question that’s going to be asked is, when is the UK’s big bet on science and technology going to pay off?

UK government spending on R&D since 1986, expressed in real (inflation corrected) terms.  Sources: spending out-turns: UK government statistics, reduced to constant 2023 £s using GDP deflator.  Plans: 2025 Comprehensive Spending Review, corrected for anticipated inflation using OBR inflation predictions.

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AI and the problems of protein folding

The problem of predicting protein structure from sequence has been definitively solved by the AI programme AlphaFold, winning a well-deserved Nobel prize for its developers. But structure prediction is just one of at least four different problems of protein folding.  Here I introduce four different problems of protein folding: protein structure prediction, the nature of the protein folding transition, the role of proteins that don’t fold at all, and the importance of protein misfolding, particularly for diseases like Alzheimer’s disease. 

The most important contributions yet made by machine learning and artificial intelligence to science so far are unquestionably DeepMind’s AlphaFold programmes for protein structure prediction, for which Demis Hassabis & John Jumper won the Nobel prize in chemistry in 2021 (shared with David Baker, for closely related work).  Proteins are linear macromolecules; each type of protein has a unique one dimensional sequence of amino acids. For many proteins, this 1d sequence encodes a unique three dimensional structure, and it’s this 3d structure which underpins the function of the protein in the operations of the living cell.  AlphaFold takes the 1d sequence of a protein and predicts the 3d structure.  This is the problem of protein structure prediction, outstanding for half a century, now definitively solved by AI.  

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UK science policy in transition

The way the UK government funds science is currently in the midst of a major transition, with the creation of a much more direct link between the priorities of the government of the day and the kind of research that it funds.  A few months ago I wrote about the likely prospect of a breakdown of a long period of consensus in UK science policy – UK Science in a post-liberal world.  I’m not sure whether the current changes are best thought of as the first manifestation of this breakdown of consensus, or as an attempt to make those changes in the system that are necessary to preserve it.  Here I make a first attempt to set these changes in context.  

Some history

UK governments have recognised the need for the State to fund scientific research since the late 19th century, and some of the principles underpinning that were articulated early in the 20th century. One innovation of that period was the Research Council – conceived as a body standing slightly apart from government, largely managed by expert scientists.  The first of these was the Medical Research Council, established in 1920 as a body incorporated by a Royal Charter.  Subsequently, other research councils, covering other fields of science – and social science and the humanities – were established on the same principles, and various reorganisations have taken place, but the basic model remained in place until 2017.

It is important, however, to understand that for most of this period the research supported by Research Councils amounted to only a small fraction of total government R&D.  Most of this took place with the direct support of government departments, such as those responsible for agriculture, for defence and military procurement, and for atomic energy, often in government research laboratories.  Going into the 1980’s, when the UK was one of the most R&D intensive countries in the world, less than 15% of government funded R&D was supported by the research councils.

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Rock climbing and the economics of innovation (revisited)

The rock-climber Alex Honnold is in the news again, thanks to his live, televised ascent of a skyscraper in Taiwan.  This gives me an excuse to recycle this post from October 2019.  Here I explain that just because Honnold climbs without a rope, that doesn’t mean that his achievement doesn’t rely on technological progress over many decades, contrary to the claim of a well-known economist.

The rock climber Alex Honnold’s free, solo ascent of El Capitan is inspirational in many ways. For economist John Cochrane, watching the film of the ascent has prompted a blogpost: “What the success of rock climbing tells us about economic growth”. He concludes that “Free Solo is a great example of the expansion of ability, driven purely by advances in knowledge, untethered from machines.” As an amateur in both rock climbing and innovation theory, I can’t resist some comments of my own. I think it’s all a bit more complicated than Cochrane thinks. In particular his argument that Honnold’s success tells us that knowledge – and the widespread communication of knowledge – is more important than new technology in driving economic growth doesn’t really stand up.

The film “Free Solo” shows Honnold’s 2017 ascent of the 3000 ft cliff El Capitan, in the Yosemite Valley, California. The climb was done free (i.e. without the use of artificial aids like pegs to make progress), and solo – without ropes or any other aids to safety. How come, Cochrane asks, rock climbers have got so much better at climbing since El Cap’s first ascent in 1958, which took 47 days, done with “siege tactics” and every artificial aid available at the time? “There is essentially no technology involved. OK, Honnold wears modern climbing boots, which have very sticky rubber. But that’s about it. And reasonably sticky rubber has been around for a hundred years or so too.”

Hold on a moment here – no technology? I don’t think the history of climbing really bears this out. Even the exception that Cochrane allows, sticky rubber boots, is more complicated than he thinks. Continue reading “Rock climbing and the economics of innovation (revisited)”