The Soft Machines blog has been going for more than twenty years, I’m astonished to say. It’s good to see a substantial increase in the number of readers in 2025’s later months – no doubt helped by the fact that, with a bit more time on my hands, I’ve been writing a bit more regularly. For the benefit of new readers and old, here’s a review of some of the year’s posts, set in the context of some of this blog’s recurring themes.
The UK’s productivity and economic growth problem
The UK’s continuing economic stagnation remains a continual preoccupation, unfortunately. A recent post presents the most recent data for GDP per capita, showing that the country is around 30% worse off than if the pre-2008 trend had continued. Such a dramatic change in economic fortunes must have a cause – or causes. Stating what should be obvious, but doesn’t seem to be, to many commentators, I insist that the causes must precede the big break in 2008, and that there may be long lags between cause and effect. But one can always make things worse with subsequent bad decisions.
The UK’s continuing economic growth crisis
Fundamentally, our economic problems are problems of productivity growth – or lack of it. I’ve been writing about this for about a decade, with a post from earlier in the year summarising some of the arguments:
Ten Years of Banging on about Productivity
Why does this matter? From the government’s perspective, projections of future productivity growth make a big difference to how much public spending can grow or how much taxes have to rise to keep the government within its fiscal rules. The role of the Office of Budgetary Responsibility in making forecasts is key here, but its record in predicting future productivity growth is frankly risible, as I discussed in the context of the Spring Statement:
Why productivity growth is important – Spring Statement 2025 Edition
Productivity and GDP per capita are technical concepts, so it might be thought that these issues aren’t relevant to people’s everyday lives. Nothing could be further from the truth – the slowdown in productivity is directly reflected in peoples’ earnings, shown dramatically in this plot from:
The End of Wage Growth in the UK

Average real weekly UK wages. Green: Composite Average Weekly Earnings series, corrected for inflation using consumer prices index. Thomas, R and Dimsdale, N (2017) “A Millennium of UK Data”, Bank of England OBRA dataset. Brown: ONS, Real Average Weekly Earnings, total pay, using CPI (seasonally adjusted). 18/2/2025 release.
Everything that’s wrong with politics and economics in the UK can be traced back to stagnating productivity.
Towards economic growth, energy and progress
Is this economic stagnation inevitable? I don’t think so – I believe it to be the result of policy choices the country has made, and different choices are possible. I welcome a growing movement of commentators and think-tanks exploring concrete policy ideas to break the stagnation, though I don’t always agree with their priorities. At the end of last year, I wrote what I hope comes across as a sympathetic critique of one strand of thought –
Taking Anglofuturism Seriously
One theme that is at the centre of much of this kind of writing prioritises cheap, abundant energy, with a new roll-out of nuclear power put centre-stage. I’m in sympathy with this, though I don’t think the analysis of the recent failure of the UK to build new nuclear power stations goes far enough. In 2014, the government planned to build 18 GW of new nuclear power; as I write, none has been delivered, and only 3.2 GW is under construction. Much emphasis is placed on the need to remove regulatory barriers; this in my view is necessary, but not sufficient: more thought needs to be given to how to rebuild national capabilities, as I argue here:
Ownership, Control, National capability: learning lessons from the UK’s nuclear new build debacle
Another recent feature of the UK economy is a rapid decline in the share of the economy accounted for by manufacturing – a decline shared by other developed economies, but which has been particularly large in the UK. Manufacturing now accounts for 8% of UK economy; should we try & increase this? I think so, but it’s important to distinguish some good arguments for this from bad ones (and recognise some uncertainties). Manufacturing matters for its potential for productivity growth – what’s important is the value it creates, not the jobs. Manufacturing capability is also important for national security, but realism is needed about UK’s position as <3% of world high tech economy – we need to aim for security, not autarky.
Good reasons and bad reasons for supporting manufacturing (and some uncertainties)
On artificial intelligence
Inevitably, I have written about artificial intelligence. I don’t think anyone knows how this story is going to play out, least of all me, so back in May I sketched out three scenarios for the economic impact of AI:
1. Intelligence explosion – the Silicon Valley vision of AI entering a state of recursive self-improvement, leading to artificial general intelligence, and a winner takes all economy, in which the controllers of the new technologies enjoy unprecedented political and economic power.
2. Excel in prose – in which AI is understood as a powerful normal technology, whose applications lead to significant productivity gains across a number of sectors, but with a delay as business processes have to be adapted to make the most of the new technology.
3. Crash and burn – in which the revenues generated by applications of AI are disappointing, and can’t justify the huge capital investments have been made in AI infrastructure. The subsequent bursting of a financial bubble leads to systemic damage to the world financial system and the real economy.
Writing in May, I described “Crash and burn” as a contrarian scenario, but in the last few months it seems to have become mainstream; one can’t open up the Financial Times app without coming across an AI Bubble article.
The economic impact of AI: three scenarios
One aspect of the AI story that I think has been neglected is the state of the material base that underlies the technology – the integrated circuits that are used to train and run the AI models. For many decades, we came to rely on an exponential increase in computer power, arising from the miniaturisation of the circuit components expressed in Moore’s Law.
Moore’s Law is still evoked by commentators as a symbol of accelerating technological change, but in fact the rate of increase in raw computer power has slowed substantially over the last two decades. Available computer power for applications such as large language models is still increasing, but this increased power is coming, less from miniaturisation, more from software, specialised architectures optimised for particular tasks, and advanced packaging of chips.
Minimum transistor footprint (product of metal pitch and contacted gate pitch) for successive semiconductor process nodes. Data: (1994 – 2014 inclusive) – Stanford Nanoelectronics Lab, post 2017 and projections, successive editions of the IEEE International Roadmap for Devices and Systems
In the classical heyday of Moore’s Law, from the mid 1980’s to the mid 2000’s, computer power grew at a rate of 50% a year compounded, doubling every two years. In this extraordinary period, there was more than a thousandfold cumulative increase over a couple of decades.
Now, in contrast, it is not the supply of computer power that is increasing exponentially; we have an exponential increase in demand, while the increase in supply has more of a linear character.
In “AI and the manufacturing firm of the future”, I ask how AI will change ht world of manufacturing. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has written about a manufacturing singularity, with AGI powered humanoid robots building factories to make more robots. I ask, as politely as I can, whether this vision reflects his lack of understanding of the material base of our industrial world, is a somewhat overheated metaphor, or is just bullshit (in Harry Frankfurt’s sense – i.e. an utterance whose intended effect is uncoupled to any truth value).
An alternative scenario is of AI driving process & system optimisation in increasingly automated factories. If Altman’s vision is driving strategies in the USA, I think the latter scenario is the one being aggressively pursued in China. We’ll see which is closer to reality.
AI and the manufacturing firm of the future
UK science and university policy
Until my retirement at the end of September this year it was very much part of my day job to think about science and university policy in the UK. UK Universities have been under huge financial pressure in recent years, so some might be tempted to step back from their role in their communities. In this piece I argued that this would be a big mistake, and instead they should take even more seriously their role supporting regional economies.
The civic university in hard times
The next piece offers a much more personal view of the role of universities in their regions – it’s a retrospective on my time as Vice-President for Regional Innovation and Civic Engagement at the University of Manchester, reviewing the progress we have made working with partners in the city-region to realise the University’s potential to support Greater Manchester’s economy.
On leaving the University of Manchester
Finally, my most popular post of the year was this rather provocative piece: UK Science in a post-liberal world. Here, I argue that a multi-decade period of consensus in UK science policy is likely soon to come to an end, and that the UK’s research system must respond to a new focus on re-building, re-energising, re-arming and re-industrialising for a changed & hostile world.
UK Science in a post-liberal world
Family matters
To turn to personal matters, my mother, Sheila Jones, died on October 31st this year, a little more than two years after the death of my father, Robbie Jones. I found it helpful to write these two pieces to celebrate their lives, and to reflect on where I have come from.
Sheila Howell Jones (1934 – 2025) , Robert Cecil Jones (1932 – 2023)




